Population

Introduction

At 6.4 billion and climbing, the world's population is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.1 Yet our known fossil fuel reserves are in decline, and alternative energy sources are not expanding rapidly enough to meet future demand.2

Only by working together to create innovative solutions can we meet the challenge of delivering energy for human progress today and tomorrow. Here is some background on the world population outlook.

  1. World Population 1950-2050, US Census Bureau
    http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html.
  2. How Long Will the World's Oil Last?, Energy Bulletin, 9/09/04
    http://www.energybulletin.net/2007.html.

What's happening now?

More than 80% of the world's people live in developing countries and nearly 40% of them are children and teenagers.3 While population growth is near zero in the world's richest countries, rapid growth in low and medium-income countries is contributing many potential workers and consumers to the world's economy.4

The world is getting wealthier5 and the economies of poor countries are developing, yet poverty remains a major problem. Nearly four in five people in the world are considered poor, existing on less than US$10 per day.6 The availability of affordable energy will be critical to raise their standard of living. Meanwhile, many of the world's ecosystems are under stress, and will become more so as an increased population puts increased demand on resources.7

  1. Tomorrow's Markets, World Resources Institute 2002. p 10.
  2. Ibid. p 11.
  3. http://soundmoney.publicradio.org/archive/old_features/chris970913.htm
  4. Tomorrow's Markets, World Resources Institute 2002. p 13.
  5. Stress on the Environment, Society and Resources, Global Issues
    http://www.globalissues.org/EnvIssues/Population/Stress.asp.

What's on the horizon?

Developing countries like India and China are experiencing population growth and rapidly improving standards of living, while energy consumption continues to rise in the developed world.8 Together they will place growing strain on the energy equation. And the environmental impacts of producing, delivering, and using energy will become even more critical than they are today.9

  1. Energy Information Administration
    http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html.
  2. The Hidden Cost of Fossil Fuels, Union of Concerned Scientists
    http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/fossil_fuels/the-hidden-cost-of-fossil-fuels.html.

What's the challenge?

The challenge lies in meeting this growing demand in a way that improves quality of life today without sacrificing it for future generations. This requires us to use all the resources we have at our disposal, and continue to develop long-term solutions that foster social progress while protecting the environment.10

  1. World Summit for Social Development Copenhagen, 03/95
    http://www.earthsummit2002.org/wssd/wssd/wssd3.html.

What's being done about it?

Both individuals and institutions are conserving energy in ways large and small:

  • companies and governments are making large commitments to research and development of advanced technologies and alternative sources of energy
  • auto makers, jet engine manufacturers, electric utilities, and many others are finding ways to improve energy efficiency and reduce waste
  • energy companies are bringing to market unconventional and alternative fuels, such as tar sands, liquefied natural gas (LNG), gas-to-liquids, solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels
  • and millions of small businesses and individuals are doing their part to reduce energy consumption

But we are still a long way from figuring out how to continue meeting energy demand as population increases.

What's next?

There is no silver bullet solution for meeting future demand. But there are many ways we can address the issue:

  • improved energy policies
  • greater conservation
  • alternative energy sources
  • new sources of fossil fuels
  • increased yield from existing reservoirs

These are all part of the solution, but each has its costs and benefits. The challenge we face is to use all resources at our disposal in a way that will improve the lives of the 6.4 billion people on the planet today, while preparing for a future world of 9 billion.